A Stochastic Model for the Luminosity Fluctuations of Accreting Black Holes

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

I will present a new statistical model for the X-ray fluctuations of accreting black holes. The model is formulated in the time domain via a set of stochastic differential equations, and fitting the model is done in the time domain via a likelihood-based approach. Out technique is not biased by red noise leak, aliasing, irregular sampling, and measurement error, and is computationally efficient. We apply our model to the RXTE+XMM X-ray lightcurves of 10 local AGN and show that our model is both a good fit to the data, and is able to recover previous results with increased accuracy. We find a tight anti-correlation between the black hole mass and the amplitude of the driving noise field in our model, which is proportional to the amplitude of the high frequency X-ray PSD, and we estimate that this parameter gives black hole mass estimates to within 0.2 dex precision.

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