Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2004
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsm42a..07f&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SM42A-07
Mathematics
Probability
2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms
Scientific paper
A minimal model for the evolution of the global dynamical state of the magnetotail during the substorm, involving only three simple rules has been developed. The model considers the general state of the magnetospheric system rather than concentrate on the physical nature of the substorm instability. When driven by a real solar wind power input, the minimal substorm model produces a probability distribution of times between substorm onsets that compares favourably with the distribution of 1001 inter-substorm intervals found by Borovsky et al. from observation. In this paper we examine the validity of the assumptions behind the model, specifically that the integrated solar wind input between two contiguous substorm onsets is proportional to the solar wind input at the time of the first substorm. We do this by comparing the integrated solar wind input between pairs of substorm onsets with the solar wind input at the time of the first substorm onset for a set of observed substorm pairs.
Abel Gary A.
Freeman Mervyn. P.
Smith Anthony J.
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