A Simple Modular Sun-to-Earth Propagation Model: Verification of Model Predictions

Details A Simple Modular Sun-to-Earth Propagation Model: Verification of Model Predictions A Simple Modular Sun-to-Earth Propagation Model: Verification of Model Predictions

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsh31a0694a&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SH31A-0694

Computer Science

Performance

2102 Corotating Streams, 2169 Sources Of The Solar Wind, 7511 Coronal Holes, 7524 Magnetic Fields, 7843 Numerical Simulation Studies

Scientific paper

We are developing a simplified model to explore issues relating to operational aspects of Sun-Earth space weather models. Because quantitative solar inputs are currently quite limited, the modular components of the prototype Sun-Earth model consist of simple physics-based and semi-empirical models as well as numerical MHD models that can be run efficiently on workstations. An advantage of the modular architecture is that it allows for extensive experimentation and permits easy replacement of individual models by improved ones as they (and any required data streams) become available. In this study, we use three inter-linked models to predict solar parameters at 1 AU. The coronal field is determined out to 2.5 Rs using a potential field source surface (PFSS) model, with photospheric field synoptic maps as input. The output from the PFSS model is then used as input to a version of Schatten's current sheet model. This model determines the field out to 21.5 Rs, where the solar wind is both supersonic and super-Alfvenic. Finally, the current sheet model's output is fed into Odstrcil's MHD propagation code, which transports the solar wind to 1 AU. We test the model using daily updated Mount Wilson Solar Observatory synoptic maps from 1995. During this period, the Sun was in the declining phase of the solar cycle and the solar wind had relatively simple structure. We compare the predictive performance of the modular model with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model that is in operational use at NOAA/SEC.

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