A search for short-term meteorological effects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Circulation, Atmospheric Models, Numerical Weather Forecasting, Solar Activity Effects, Synoptic Meteorology, Cloud Cover, Geopotential Height, Graphs (Charts), Meteorological Parameters, Numerical Integration, Ozone

Scientific paper

A set of numerical experiments is carried out to test the short-range sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global atmospheric general-circulation model to changes in solar constant and ozone amount. These experiments consist of forecasts initiated with actual atmospheric data. One set of forecasts is made with a standard version of the model; another set uses the model modified by very different values of the solar constant (two-thirds and three-halves of the standard value) and of the ozone amount (zero and twice the standard amount). Twelve-day integrations with these very large variations show such small effects that the effects of realistic variations would almost certainly be insignificant meteorologically on this time scale.

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