Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1992
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1992wadc.iafcqx...s&link_type=abstract
IAF, International Astronautical Congress, 43rd, Washington, Aug. 28-Sept. 5, 1992. 18 p.
Mathematics
Probability
Manned Mars Missions, Nuclear Propulsion, Reliability Analysis, Safety Factors, Spacecraft Propulsion, Failure Analysis, Liquid Hydrogen, Mathematical Models, Mission Planning
Scientific paper
The paper presents an initial exploration of the safety and reliability of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system for a representative manned Mars mission. The hypothetical mission goal, 0.95 probability of success, is apportioned among 15 mission phases using optimistic and pessimistic assumptions, yielding an apportioned reliability goal for an NTP phase between 0.987 and 0.996. Preliminary analysis suggests that reliability of the reactor and the LH2 turbopump subsystems are critical elements. A variety of field data are employed to estimate the reliability of these subsystems. It is suggested that the NTP system can meet its goal during active thrusting. Reliability during three cumulative hours of active thrusting is probably less important than the 9120 hours of standby (dormancy) between thrust phases.
Pelaccio Dennis G.
Sforza Pasquale M.
Shooman Martin L.
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