Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
2009-03-14
Mathematics
Probability
Added a proof of inverse polynomial paradox probability for functions that are inverse polynomially close to dictators
Scientific paper
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem states that any constitution which satisfies Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) and Unanimity and is not a Dictator has to be non-transitive. In this paper we study quantitative versions of Arrow theorem. Consider $n$ voters who vote independently at random, each following the uniform distribution over the 6 rankings of 3 alternatives. Arrow's theorem implies that any constitution which satisfies IIA and Unanimity and is not a dictator has a probability of at least $6^{-n}$ for a non-transitive outcome. When $n$ is large, $6^{-n}$ is a very small probability, and the question arises if for large number of voters it is possible to avoid paradoxes with probability close to 1. Here we give a negative answer to this question by proving that for every $\eps > 0$, there exists a $\delta = \delta(\eps) > 0$, which depends on $\eps$ only, such that for all $n$, and all constitutions on 3 alternatives, if the constitution satisfies: The IIA condition. For every pair of alternatives $a,b$, the probability that the constitution ranks $a$ above $b$ is at least $\eps$. For every voter $i$, the probability that the social choice function agrees with a dictatorship on $i$ at most $1-\eps$. Then the probability of a non-transitive outcome is at least $\delta$.
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