A Qualitative Model of Meteor Storms

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Leonid, Meteor Storms, Meteoroids, Meteors, Perseid

Scientific paper

This work addresses the behavior of rare outbursts of meteor activity colloquially known as meteor storms. During such meteor storms, the observed rate of meteors can jump several orders of magnitude over normal rates. Historically, the largest meteor outbursts have been associated with the return to the inner Solar System of the parent comet of the meteor stream. For example, the Leonid shower tends to show storming behavior every 33 years, coinciding with the approximate time of the perihelion passage of its parent comet P/Tempel-Tuttle. This paper presents a model that describes why and when meteor storms can be expected to occur. The model predicts that the Earth must pass near the meteoroid stream within a computed time window in order for observers on the Earth to observe such a storm; the width and location of the time window being a function primarily of the parent comet's orbit. Using this method, a series of potential storm-producing comets were examined for possible meteor storms in coming years. The model predicts that the Leonid shower should be expected to storm in 1999, and possibly the Giacobinid (October Draconid) shower in 1998. In addition, the model predicts that the Perseid shower should show enhanced activity for the next few years, but the meteor rates should not increase significantly over normal levels. The model predicts that the meteor streams from other potential storm-producing comets should not produce any storms before the year 2000, but may do so early in the next century.

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