A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24

Details A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24 A prediction of the onset of solar cycle 24

Oct 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006a%26a...457..309d&link_type=abstract

Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 457, Issue 1, October I 2006, pp.309-312

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

12

Sun: Activity, Sun: Sunspots, Sun: General

Scientific paper

Aims.This paper aims to search for a method to estimate the onset of a new solar cycle by re-investigating the relationship between descending and ascending phase durations in terms of weighted extremum times. Methods: .The lagged cross-correlation method is used to analyze their relationship. Results: . The descending phase durations are found to be anti-correlated (correlation coefficient, -0.77) with the ascending phase durations three cycles earlier, in the 13-month running mean sunspot numbers since cycle 8. From linear regression analysis, the descending phase duration of cycle 23 is estimated to be 78±7 months; thus, cycle 24 should start near March 2007, where the error bar equals ± standard error.

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