A phenomenological reconstruction of the solar signature in the NH surface temperature records since 1600.

Details A phenomenological reconstruction of the solar signature in the NH surface temperature records since 1600. A phenomenological reconstruction of the solar signature in the NH surface temperature records since 1600.

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsh41a..04s&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SH41A-04

Mathematics

Logic

1616 Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), 1650 Solar Variability (7537), 3270 Time Series Analysis (1872, 4277, 4475), 3337 Global Climate Models (1626, 4928)

Scientific paper

Herein we use a phenomenological radiative relaxation model for reconstructing the solar signature on 400 years of two Northern Hemisphere global surface temperature records since 1600, under several hypotheses. The model, which depends on only two parameters, is calibrated using the solar and temperature data covering the pre-industrial era (roughly 1600-1900), when negligible amount of anthropogenic-added climate forcing was present and the sun realistically was the only climate force affecting climate on a secular scale. Then, we adopt the calibrated model to estimate the relative contribution of the (solar-induced) natural versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the industrial era (roughly since 1900). We use two recent secular Northern Hemisphere proxy temperature reconstructions, one with a minimal [Mann and Jones, 2003] pre-industrial secular variability and the other with a greater [Moberg et al., 2005] secular variability from 1600 to 1849, and the Northern Hemisphere instrumental surface temperature reconstruction since 1850 [Brohan et al., 2006]. We also use two total solar irradiance (TSI) proxy reconstructions, one with a minimal [Wang et al., 2005] and the other with a greater [Lean, 2000] secular variability, and two TSI satellite composites [Fröhlich and Lean, 1998; Willson and Mordvinov, 2003] since 1980. We find that the relative contribution of the (solar-induced) natural versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the last century depends on the particular temperature secular proxy reconstruction adopted. By adopting the `hockey stick' reconstruction by Mann and Jones [2003] the solar contribution to the warming since 1900 would be minimal. According to the most recent temperature and TSI reconstruction by Moberg et al. [2005] and Wang et al. [2005], we find a good correspondence between global temperature and solar induced temperature signals during the pre-industrial period such as the cooling periods occurring during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1795-1825). The sun might have contributed 50% (or more if ACRIM is adopted) of the observed global warming since 1900.

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