A Phase-Space Model for Pleistocene Ice Volume

Details A Phase-Space Model for Pleistocene Ice Volume A Phase-Space Model for Pleistocene Ice Volume

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmpp31c1644i&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #PP31C-1644

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

[4901] Paleoceanography / Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change, [4910] Paleoceanography / Astronomical Forcing, [4928] Paleoceanography / Global Climate Models

Scientific paper

We present a phase-space model that simulates Pleistocene ice volume changes based on Earth's orbital parameters. In constructing the model, we attempt to separate terms representing direct orbital forcing of ice volume change from terms representing internal forces of change. The evolution equation is first-order, except during terminations, when it is second-order. The transition between the two states is governed by a threshold in phase space, i.e., a combination of ice volume and its rate of change. Timing of terminations agrees well with age estimates for Late Pleistocene terminations. The average phase at which model terminations begin is approximately 90±90° before the maxima in all three orbital cycles. The large variability in phase is likely caused by interactions between the three cycles and ice volume. Unlike previous ice volume models, this model reproduces an increase in 100-kyr power during the mid-Pleistocene transition without any change in model parameters. This supports the hypothesis that Pleistocene variations in the 100-kyr power of glacial cycles could be caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters, such as amplitude modulation of the 100-kyr eccentricity cycle, rather than changes within the climate system. Phase-space trace of the filtered ice-volume record (color denotes orbital forcing). Black line indicates the termination threshold.

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