Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1986
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1986asdy.conf..821m&link_type=abstract
IN: Astrodynamics 1985; Proceedings of the Conference, Vail, CO, August 12-15, 1985. Part 2 (A86-43201 20-12). San Diego, CA, Un
Mathematics
Probability
Collision Avoidance, Geosynchronous Orbits, Miss Distance, Orbital Position Estimation, Satellite Orbits, Synchronous Satellites, Satellite Tracking, Weibull Density Functions
Scientific paper
A new technique has been developed to predict the probability of an expired geosynchronous satellite colliding with an active satellite. This new technique employs deterministic methods for modeling the motion of satellites and applies statistical techniques to estimate the collision probability. The collision probability is used to estimate the expected time between collisions based on realistic distributions of expired and active satellites. The primary advantage of this new technique is that realistic distributions can be used in the prediction process instead of uniform distributions as has been used in previous techniques. The expected time between collisions based on a current NORAD database is estimated to be in the hundreds of years.
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