A new model of predicting sunspot number

Details A new model of predicting sunspot number A new model of predicting sunspot number

Sep 1988

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988cha%26a..12..249z&link_type=abstract

Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 12, Issue 3, p. 249-253.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Sun, Sunspot Prediction

Scientific paper

A new model called Self-Excitation Threshold Autrogressive (SETAR) Model is proposed for the prediction of annual sunspot numbers. The model is xta(1)0 + Σi=1P_1 a(1)ixt-i + ɛ(1)t xt-d<=r/a(2)0 + Σi=1P_2 a(2)ixt-i + ɛ(2)t xt-d>r where r is the threshold and d is a delay parameter. The coefficients a are estimated by least squares, and the parameters pj, r and d are determined by Akaike's minimum information criterion.
The predicted annual numbers for the years 1956-1985 differed from the observed numbers by between 0.3 to 40.6, the average difference being 12.5 without regard to sign.
Predictions for the years 1986-1997 are given in TABLE 4. The predicted minimum is in 1986-1987 and the maximum is in 1990-1991, with RM = 81.2 +/- 16.2.

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