A new model of predicting sunspot number

Details A new model of predicting sunspot number A new model of predicting sunspot number

Sep 1988

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988acaps...8..131z&link_type=abstract

(Acta Astrophysica Sinica, vol. 8, 1988, p. 131-137) Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics (ISSN 0275-1062), vol. 12, Sept. 1988, p

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Autoregressive Processes, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Sunspots, Mathematical Models, Self Excitation, Tables (Data)

Scientific paper

A model for the prediction of annual sunspot numbers, called the self-excitation threshold autoregressive model, is presented. Using the model, the predicted annual numbers for the years 1956-1985 differed from the observed numbers by 0.3-40.6, with the average difference being 12.5. Predictions for the years 1986-1997 are given, with the predicted minimum in 1986-7 and the predicted maximum in 1990-91.

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