Other
Scientific paper
Nov 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011georl..3821701c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, Issue 21, CiteID L21701
Other
Cryosphere: Snow (1827, 1863), Atmospheric Processes: Atmospheric Electricity, Atmospheric Processes: Land/Atmosphere Interactions (1218, 1631, 1843, 4301), Atmospheric Processes: Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions
Scientific paper
Seasonal climate prediction remains a challenge. During Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter the large-scale teleconnection pattern the Arctic Oscillation (AO) explains the largest fraction of temperature variance of any other known climate mode. However the Arctic Oscillation is considered to be a result of intrinsic atmospheric dynamics or chaotic behavior and therefore is unpredictable. Here we develop a snow advance index (SAI) derived from antecedent observed snow cover that explains a large fraction of the variance of the winter AO. The high correlation between the SAI and the winter AO demonstrates that the AO is most likely predictable and that this index can be exploited for skillful seasonal climate predictions.
Cohen Judah
Jones Justin
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