A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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Global Change: Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), Global Change: Cryospheric Change (0776), Cryosphere: Permafrost (0475), Biogeosciences: Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912), Computational Geophysics: Data Analysis: Algorithms And Implementation

Scientific paper

Climate warming in the Swedish sub-Arctic since 2000 has reached a level at which statistical analysis shows for the first time that current warming has exceeded that in the late 1930's and early 1940's, and has significantly crossed the 0°C mean annual temperature threshold which causes many cryospheric and ecological impacts. The accelerating temperature increase trend has driven similar trends in the century-long increase in snow thickness, loss of lake ice, increases in active layer thickness, lake water TOC (total organic carbon) concentrations and the assemblages of diatoms, and changes in tree-line location and plant community structure. Some of these impacts were not evident in the first warm period of the 20th Century. Changes in climate are associated with reduced temperature variability, particularly loss of cold winters and cool summers, and an increase in extreme precipitation events that cause mountain slope instability and infrastructure failure. The long term records of multiple, local environmental factors compiled here for the first time provide detailed information for adaptation strategy development while dramatic changes in an environment particularly vulnerable to climate change highlight the need to adopt global mitigation strategies.

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