A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23

Details A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23 A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23

Dec 1998

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1998jgr...10329733c&link_type=abstract

Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 103, Issue A12, p. 29733-29742

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

12

Magnetospheric Physics: Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Magnetic Fields, And Astronomy: Radio Emissions, And Astronomy: Instruments And Techniques

Scientific paper

We examine the use of feed forward neural networks in the long term (i.e., years ahead) prediction of sunspot number. First, we briefly review the history of the time series and also some previous attempts to predict it. We outline our neural network method and discuss how the reliability of the data affects training. We conclude that earlier data should not be used to train neural networks that are intended to make predictions at the current epoch. We then use this understanding of the data in training neural networks, testing many different configurations to see which provides the best 1-6 year ahead prediction accuracies. By looking at the distribution of residuals, an estimate of the uncertainty is placed on the best networks' predictions. According to our predictions of yearly sunspot number, the maximum of cycle 23 will occur in the year 2001 and will have an annual mean sunspot number of 130 with an uncertainty of +/-30-80% confidence. Finally, we discuss our result in relation to others and comment on how neural networks may be used in future work.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23 does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and A neural network prediction of solar cycle 23 will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1294296