Economy – Quantitative Finance – Statistical Finance
Scientific paper
2012-02-24
Economy
Quantitative Finance
Statistical Finance
8 pages, 3 figures
Scientific paper
We introduce tools for inference in the multifractal random walk introduced by Bacry et al. (2001). These tools include formulas for smoothing, filtering and volatility forecasting. In addition, we present methods for computing conditional densities for one- and multi-step returns. The inference techniques presented in this paper, including maximum likelihood estimation, are applied to data from the Oslo Stock Exchange, and it is observed that the volatility forecasts based on the multifractal random walk have a much richer structure than the forecasts obtained from a basic stochastic volatility model.
Løvsletten Ola
Rypdal Martin
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