Statistics – Computation
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsm53b..01w&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SM53B-01
Statistics
Computation
[7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models
Scientific paper
Space physics is moving into a new era where numerical models originally developed for answering science questions are used as the basis for making operational space weather forecasts. Answering this challenge requires developments on multiple fronts requiring collaborations across space physics disciplines and between the research and operations communities. Since space weather in geospace is driven by the solar wind conditions a natural solution to improving the forecast lead time is to couple geospace models to heliospheric models. The quality of these forecast is dependent upon the ability of the heliospheric models to accurately model IMF Bz. Another challenge presented by moving into the forecasting arena is preparing the models for real-time operation which includes both computational performance and data redundancy issues. Moving into operations also presents modelers with an opportunity to assess their models performance over calculation intervals unprecedented duration. A key collaboration in the transition of models to operation is the discussion between forecasters and developers on what forecast parameters can accurately be predicted by the current generation of numerical models. This collaboration naturally includes a discussion of the definition of the best metrics to be used in quantitatively assessing performance.
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