Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jun 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3211703k&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 11, CiteID L11703
Mathematics
Probability
17
Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900), Atmospheric Processes: Instruments And Techniques, Geographic Location: Europe
Scientific paper
We present a comparison of reconstructed and simulated January and July temperatures in Europe for a time slice (~125 kyr BP) within the last interglacial (Eemian, ~127-116 kyr BP). The reconstructions, based on pollen and plant macrofossils, were performed on 48 European sites using a method based on probability density functions (pdf-method). The reconstructed most probable climate values were compared with a global climate simulation which was realized with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations have been adapted to conditions at 125 kyr BP. Reconstructions and simulation are concordant in showing higher temperatures than today over most parts of Europe in summer and in revealing a west-east-gradient in winter temperature differences with increasing anomalies toward eastern Europe. The results indicate that differences in the orbital parameters are sufficient to explain the reconstructed Eemian temperature patterns.
Cubasch Ulrich
Kaspar Frank
Kühl Norbert
Litt Thomas
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