A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

Details A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

2005-05-18

arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0505035v1

JSTAT: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment P07008 (2005)

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

Scientific paper

10.1088/1742-5468/2005/07/P07008

We introduce and discuss a minimal individual-based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short-lived strain transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behavior, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains, or to their divergence.

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