A method for the prediction of the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of the 23th cycle

Details A method for the prediction of the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of the 23th cycle A method for the prediction of the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of the 23th cycle

Aug 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003acasn..44..279z&link_type=abstract

Acta Astronomica Sinica, vol. 44, no. 3, p. 279-285

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Sun: Activity, Sun: Sunspots

Scientific paper

A lot of methods have been employed to predict the solar activities, which include the statistic and precursor methods. In this paper, a method is proposed to give the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of a progressing cycle. In the method, the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of the first several years of cycle 23 are moved to compare with each of the preceding cycles 1 to 22, respectively. By determining the amplitude parameter 'm' to ensure the two cycles to be the most similar, and 'm' is found to tend to be a certain value at early stage. Thus future behavior in an ongoing cycle can be determined by previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures. finally, the remainder of the monthly smoothed sunspot numbers of cycle 23 are given by using the method, and a comparison of this method with the similar cycle method is given as well.

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