Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Sep 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002a%26a...392..301l&link_type=abstract
Astronomy and Astrophysics, v.392, p.301-307 (2002)
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
7
Sun: Activity, Sun: Sunspots, Sun: General
Scientific paper
In this paper, we investigate the prospect of using previously occurring sunspot cycle signatures to determine future behavior in an ongoing cycle, with specific application to cycle 23, the current sunspot cycle. We find that the gross level of solar activity (i.e., the sum of the total number of sunspots over the course of a sunspot cycle) associated with cycle 23, based on a comparison of its first several years of activity against similar periods of preceding cycles, is such that cycle 23 best compares to cycle 2. Compared to cycles 2 and 22, respectively, cycle 23 appears 1.08 times larger and 0.75 times as large. Because cycle 2 was of shorter period, we infer that cycle 23 also might be of shorter length (period less than 11 years), ending sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.
Li Kai-Jun
Liang Hong-Fei
Liu Xiao-Hai
Wang Jing-Xiu
Xiong Song-Ying
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