A method for predicting Wolf numbers

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity Effects, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Sunspots, Jupiter (Planet), Planetary Waves, Quadratures, Saturn (Planet), Solar Cycles, Tidal Waves

Scientific paper

Romanchuk's (1965) method of resonance curves for predicting sunspots, which is based on the hypothesis of the effectiveness of planetary tidal influences on the sun, is analyzed. The purpose of the method is to make long-range predictions of Wolf numbers, but the analysis shows that functional relationships between Wolf numbers and the longitudes of planets at the times of quadrature do not exist. It is also shown that the Wolf number as a function of time has a purely formal nature and is an elementary consequence of the so-called 80-90 yr cycle of solar activity. Furthermore, the idea of a definite tidal effect of Jupiter and Saturn on the sun at the times of their quadratures is physically unjustified, because the tidal effect of Saturn is one of the smallest of the planets.

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