A Markov chain probability model for the annual polar motion series

Details A Markov chain probability model for the annual polar motion series A Markov chain probability model for the annual polar motion series

Feb 1997

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1997cha%26a..21..254y&link_type=abstract

Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 21, Issue 2, p. 254-254.

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

Scientific paper

It is shown that a Markov chain of order one gives a good fit to the annual polar motion series. Probability models for the runs of signs and cycle lengths are also constructed. The polar series was found to contain the following basic periods: 2.0, 6.07, 6.54, 7.08-8.50, 21.25-28.33 and 85 yr, the main one is the 6.07 yr period. According to the ergodic theorem, prediction for a given point should best be based on the preceding 6th to 13th data points.

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