A main belt asteroid: the most probable cause of the Tunguska event

Details A main belt asteroid: the most probable cause of the Tunguska event A main belt asteroid: the most probable cause of the Tunguska event

Sep 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002mmsai..73..679j&link_type=abstract

in Memorie della Società' Astronomica Italiana, vol. 73, no. 3, p. 679

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

We studied the available scientific literature on the Tunguska event of 30 June 1908 to select a sample of atmospheric trajectories. Then we calculated a set of parameters from which we obtained 886 orbits. Using the method of Bottke and colleagues, based on dynamical properties of celestial bodies, we estimated the probabilities of different origins of the Tunguska Cosmic Body (TCB). Even though 6 of 886 orbits can be both asteroidal or cometary, the probability of an asteroidal origin remains the highest.

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