A Long-term Solar Minimum in this Century: Evidence from Indirect Data and Optical Records

Details A Long-term Solar Minimum in this Century: Evidence from Indirect Data and Optical Records A Long-term Solar Minimum in this Century: Evidence from Indirect Data and Optical Records

May 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003spd....34.1910b&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #34, #19.10; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 35, p.843

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

We summarize the recent results and prospective work in two parallel studies (Bonev and Penev; Komitov) of the long-term trends in solar variability that can be deduced from both indirect data and optical records. Analysis' of data from 14C and 10Be measurements, aurorae (Schove series), and optical records (group sunspot number) focus on the stability and changes in amplitude of the cycles with duration near one and two centuries. Several lines of evidence are strongly suggestive for an upcoming minimum in the long-term solar variability which will be significantly less deep than the Sporer and Maunder minima. The 11-year maxima during this period of low overall activity are expected to continue ``regularly" but with a lower amplitude compared to the average for the 20th century.

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