Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsh22a..04n&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SH22A-04
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
2100 Interplanetary Physics, 2400 Ionosphere (6929), 2700 Magnetospheric Physics (6939), 3300 Atmospheric Processes, 7500 Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy
Scientific paper
There are several scientific challenges surrounding the effects of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) on climate. Among these challenges are identifying pathways by which a small decadal change in solar irradiance can be amplified beyond what current models imply to produce a significant response in the climate system, and distinguishing the SC signal from other climate signals that arise from human activities and natural causes. Adding to the challenges is the fact that these climate forcing mechanisms are subtle, nonlinearly interacting, and modulated by internal atmospheric variability. Moreover, drawing definitive conclusions from a paucity of SC data - only about four SCs of meteorological data are currently available for statistical analysis poses additional challenges. To meet these challenges, NASA's Living with a Star Targeted Research and Technology (LWS TR&T) Program formed a Sun-Climate Focus Team (FST) in 2005. The main objective of the FST is to provide improved understanding of sun-climate feedback mechanisms and to provide more accurate climate simulations involving the SC. To address this objective, the FST has mapped out a comprehensive research plan that addresses how changes in SC irradiance and solar proton events (SPEs) alter the communication at and between "phenomenological interfaces." These interfaces include: solar irradiance-middle atmosphere chemistry; middle atmosphere chemistry-atmospheric dynamics; QBO-planetary waves; tropical upwelling- planetary waves; mesosphere-lower thermosphere; and troposphere-stratosphere. A unique aspect of the FST's research plan is its holistic approach to synthesizing these various phenomenological interfaces. In most previous sun-climate research studies these interfaces have been considered in isolation and aligned along four broad avenues. The first avenue is based on observational data that suggests a portion of the SC signal is communicated globally via the modulation of the equatorial QBO. The second avenue is based on observational data that shows a strong connection between variations in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone. The third avenue is based on global modeling that suggests stratospheric ozone feedbacks can amplify the effects of the SC, leading to changes in the index of refraction of planetary waves. And the fourth avenue is based on modeling studies that show that wave-induced ozone heating can have an important effect on large-scale wave motions. The FST research plan will merge these avenues by reconstructing the most up-to-date record of solar UV changes over the past 100-years and use this record in a suite of models, ranging from mechanistic tropical and extratropical models to NCAR's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (WACCM3). The purpose of this talk is to bring the scientific community up-to-date on the progress made by the FST in meeting its goal and the goals of the LWS TR&T Program.
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