A fractal study on sunspot relative number

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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The Sun-Sunspot Relative Number-Solar Prediction

Scientific paper

In this paper, the theory of nonlinear dynamical system was used to investigate the dynamical behaviour and predictability of monthly mean sunspot relative number in modern epochs (January 1850 - May 1992). A fractal dimension D = 2.8 +/- 0.1 was obtained. The results show that the monthly mean number is a complex chaotic system of low dimension, describable by a finite number (between 3 and 7) of parameter variables. Average time scale of predictability of the monthly mean was found to be 150 months. It is proposed that the scale-free region is best determined on the basis of residuals in least-squares linear fit. The effect of data size and noise on the computed fractal dimension is briefly discussed.

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