A Forecast for Cycle 24 Based on Fluctuations Above the Floor in the Solar Wind

Details A Forecast for Cycle 24 Based on Fluctuations Above the Floor in the Solar Wind A Forecast for Cycle 24 Based on Fluctuations Above the Floor in the Solar Wind

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009spd....40.1106c&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #40, #11.06; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.826

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Scientific paper

We find a close correlation between solar polar field strength (dipole moment, DM) and the solar wind magnetic field strength (BMIN, with CME contribution removed) for the last four solar minima, extending over a range from 115-250 µT. This correlation gives BMIN = 3.2 nT for DM = 0. We derive an empirical precursor relationship between peak sunspot number (SSNMAX) for cycles 12-23 and BMIN at their preceding minima, taking BMIN for early cycles from our IDV-based time series of yearly B values. From this relationship, we obtain SSNMAX = 74 for cycle 24. We suggest that at solar minimum, after the contribution from CMEs is removed, solar wind B consists of: (1) a floor component of 3.2 nT, attributed to a constant baseline open solar flux ( 3 x 1014 Wb), and (2) a smaller component < 2 nT that varies from cycle to cycle in concert with the solar polar field strength. A 3.2 nT floor, in comparison with our previously reported value of 4.6 nT, accommodates the Ulysses and near-Earth field measurements (BR = 2.3 nT and B = 4.2 nT, respectively) during the current solar minimum, and the predicted peak sunspot number of 74 for cycle 24 substantiates our earlier SSNMAX forecast of 75 which was based on fewer cycles.

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