A first generation numerical geomagnetic storm prediction scheme

Computer Science

Scientific paper

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Auroras, Computerized Simulation, Magnetic Storms, Convection, Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Magnetic Equator, Solar Flares, Solar Rotation, Solar Wind

Scientific paper

The development of a prediction scheme for geomagnetic storms, which evaluates solar wind quantities and geomagnetic disturbances is described. The codes used in the calculation of the solar wind speed, solar wind magnetic field magnitude, the polar angle of the solar wind magnetic field vector, and the auroral discharge power as a function of time are analyzed. With the auroral discharge power and IMF components data, the geometry of the auroral oval, the cross-polar cap potential, the magnetic fields of the ring current and auroral electrojets, the total energy injection rate into the polar ionosphere, the atmospheric temperature, and electron density profile in the ionosphere are computed. The cause of variations in the north-south components of the IMF, which affects the predictability of the scheme, is investigated.

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