Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufm.h12b0991s&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #H12B-0991
Mathematics
Logic
1812 Drought, 6300 Policy Sciences, 6319 Institutions, 6334 Regional Planning, 6344 System Operation And Management
Scientific paper
There is a need for integrated models of transboundary watersheds such as that of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo (RGRB) along the US/Mexico border. We present the first stage an interdisciplinary effort to develop a semi-distributed regional dynamic simulation model (DSM) for examining water issues in the Lower RGRB basin. The RGRB serves as the border between the U.S. and Mexico. We focus first on the Conchos River basin, which contributes approximately 70-80% of the surface flow in the lower RGRB basin. Irrigated agriculture has historically been the major user of water and irrigated acreage continues to expand, but it faces increasing competition from industrial development, maquiladoras, and increasing residential water demand. International agreements such as the Treaty of 1944 between the US and Mexico stipulate that the flows in the RGRB are equally split. Yet uncertainties remain due to vagaries in the legislation. For example, Mexico is required to provide an average of 350,000 AF/yr over a five-year cycle, unless "extraordinary drought" occurs, although the Treaty does not define extraordinary. The characterization of droughts poses a significant problem for hydrometeorologists and water resource engineers. Our simulation model incorporates drought indices developed to characterize droughts in semi-arid and arid regions and statistical approaches to examine the spatial influence of droughts. To examine the effects of various structural and institutional changes to water use in the basin to meet the requirements of the Treaty and simulate climactic issues, we model agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demands that are directly linked to sectors of the regional economy using input output (IO) models. IO models can be used to examine how changes in water deliveries to the agricultural or manufacturing sectors affect the level of output, employment, and wages in the regional economy. All model outputs will be incorporated into a decision support system that will provide a tool to simulate hydrological profiles, ecosystem variability, changes in irrigation technology, and changes in management regimes within the basin and will serve to inform decision-makers of the water demand and supply changes necessary to meet the needs of international obligations and growing populations in the short and long term. The initial set of available management options include water banking and water trading within each country as well as irrigation standards, application efficiency, and water banking across borders.
Aparicio Joao
Brookshire D.
Gastelum J.
Hidalgo JC
Stewart Sarah
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