A `curve of growth' of astronomers on the Citation Index

Details A `curve of growth' of astronomers on the Citation Index A `curve of growth' of astronomers on the Citation Index

Mar 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996qjras..37....1s&link_type=abstract

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, vol.37, p.1-9

Mathematics

Probability

1

Citations, Citation Index, Astronomers, Careers

Scientific paper

The average citation career of a sample of 72 astronomers who received their PhD between 1977 and 1988, and who were employed in astronomy in 1994, is analysed using data from the Science Citation Index. The citation rates n_i(t) are fairly well represented by the assumption n_i(t)=alpha_i f(t) where f(t) is a `universal' function and alpha_i an individual `amplitude factor'. The shape of f shows that the citation rate 2 years after PhD is, on average, already one half of what it will be 12 years after PhD. Probability intervals are given for the later citation rate, for given rates early in the career. Early citation rates are found to have a modest but measurable predictive value.

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