A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Parameters Derived From Photospheric Magnetograms

Details A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Parameters Derived From Photospheric Magnetograms A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Parameters Derived From Photospheric Magnetograms

Dec 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsm41a0314b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SM41A-0314

Mathematics

Logic

7924 Forecasting (2722)

Scientific paper

A variety of researchers have proposed parameters for use in forecasting of solar flares. However, the parameters have been calculated from different data sources, and their performance has been judged based on various different criteria. We present here a systematic comparison of a small number of parameters which can be derived from the photospheric magnetic field, some of which characterize the photospheric field itself, and some which characterize the coronal magnetic topology. We compute the parameters for a collection of over 1200 vector magnetograms from the Imaging Vector Magnetograph at Haleakala, and judge their ability to forecast flares based on discriminant analysis, climatological skill scores, and the ability to provide an "all-clear" forecast.

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