A comparison of debris environment projections using the evolve and chain models

Details A comparison of debris environment projections using the evolve and chain models A comparison of debris environment projections using the evolve and chain models

Aug 1995

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1995adspr..16..127r&link_type=abstract

Advances in Space Research, Volume 16, Issue 11, p. 127-135.

Computer Science

Scientific paper

EVOLVE and CHAIN are two models for debris environment projections that have been developed independently using very different conceptual approaches. A comparison of results from these two models therefore provides a means of validating debris environment projections which they have made. EVOLVE/1/ is a model that requires mission model projections to describe future space operations; these projections include launch date, mission orbit altitude and inclination, mission duration, vehicle size and weight, and classification as an object capable of experiencing breakup from on-board stored energy. EVOLVE describes the orbital debris environment by the orbital elements of the objects in the environment. CHAIN/2,3/ is an analytic model that bins the debris environment in size and altitude rather than following the orbit evolution of individual debris fragments. The altitude/size bins are coupled by the initial spreading of fragments by collisions and the following orbital decay behavior. A set of test cases covering a variety of space usage scenarios have been defined for the two models. In this paper, a comparison of the results will be presented and sources of disagreement identified and discussed. A sensitivity analysis of the most important model components will be performed using both models.

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