A cluster identification framework illustrated by a filtering model for earthquake occurrences

Details A cluster identification framework illustrated by a filtering model for earthquake occurrences A cluster identification framework illustrated by a filtering model for earthquake occurrences

2009-06-11

arxiv.org/abs/0906.2099v1

Bernoulli 2009, Vol. 15, No. 2, 357-379

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/08-BEJ159 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statisti

Scientific paper

10.3150/08-BEJ159

A general dynamical cluster identification framework including both modeling and computation is developed. The earthquake declustering problem is studied to demonstrate how this framework applies. A stochastic model is proposed for earthquake occurrences that considers the sequence of occurrences as composed of two parts: earthquake clusters and single earthquakes. We suggest that earthquake clusters contain a ``mother quake'' and her ``offspring.'' Applying the filtering techniques, we use the solution of filtering equations as criteria for declustering. A procedure for calculating maximum likelihood estimations (MLE's) and the most likely cluster sequence is also presented.

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