A Brief Discussion of Uncertainty as It Relates to Space Nuclear Safety Analyses

Details A Brief Discussion of Uncertainty as It Relates to Space Nuclear Safety Analyses A Brief Discussion of Uncertainty as It Relates to Space Nuclear Safety Analyses

Jan 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003aipc..654..476c&link_type=abstract

SPACE TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS INT.FORUM-STAIF 2003: Conf.on Thermophysics in Microgravity; Commercial/Civil Next Generation

Statistics

Applications

Protection Systems, Safety, Radiation Monitoring, Accidents, And Dismantling, Spaceborne And Space Research Instruments, Apparatus, And Components

Scientific paper

This paper defines uncertainty as the probabilistic relationship between a set of actual observed (or observable) outcomes and the outcomes projected by a model. Some general facts about the mathematics of random variables are presented. It is observed that the major uncertainties in the Cassini safety analysis arise from subjective judgments regarding environmental transport and human interaction rather than the system or mission. It is concluded that a fair representation of mission and system safety can be provided only if these two types of uncertainties are uncoupled and presented separately.

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