Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Oct 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005apj...631.1198g&link_type=abstract
The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 631, Issue 2, pp. 1198-1214.
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
62
Methods: Data Analysis, Stars: Planetary Systems, Stars: Individual: Henry Draper Number: Hd 73526
Scientific paper
A new Bayesian tool for nonlinear model fitting has been developed that employs a parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with a novel statistical control system. The algorithm has been used to reanalyze precision radial velocity data for HD 73526. For a single-planet model, three possible orbits were found with periods of 127.88+0.37-0.09, 190.4+1.8-2.1, and 376.2+1.4-4.3 days. The 128 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.56+/-0.03, has a maximum value of prior×likelihood that is 16 times larger than for the next highest solution at 376 days. However, the 376 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.10+0.05-0.10, is formally more probable because for this sparse data set there is a much larger volume of parameter space with a significant probability density in the vicinity of the 376 day peak. The previously reported orbit (Tinney et al. 2003) of 190.5+/-3.0 days corresponds to our least probable orbit. The analysis highlights the need for measurements around phase 0.5 for the 376 day period.
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