Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jun 1991
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991georl..18.1155n&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters (ISSN 0094-8276), vol. 18, June 1991, p. 1155-1158.
Mathematics
Probability
20
Asteroids, Craters, Galileo Spacecraft, Planetary Evolution, Planetary Surfaces, Scaling Laws, Stochastic Processes
Scientific paper
An effort is made to quantitatively model the collisional environment and surface evolution of asteroid 951 Gaspra prior to the flyby of the Galileo spacecraft later this year. Gaspra's average intrinsic collisional probability is calculated to be 5.4 x 10 to the -18th/sq km per year with a root mean square impact velocity of 5.0 km/sec. The projectile population and impact strength for Gaspra are highly uncertain and a range of values is considered. Based on these models, Gaspra is unlikely to be a primordial object surviving from the beginning of the solar system. It is most likely a second or multiple generation fragment forming about 100 million yr ago. For a low impact flux, the crater size distribution directly reveals the size distribution of the impacting population. For a nonequilibrium surface, model-dependent isochrons for estimating the age of the surface are given. Lower limits are set by the model for Gaspra's age (about 1 billion yr) and flux for the case of a high impact flux producing an equilibrium surface.
Binzel Richard P.
Namiki Noriyuki
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