24-Hour Forecasting of CME/Flare Eruptions from Active-Region Magnetograms (Invited)

Details 24-Hour Forecasting of CME/Flare Eruptions from Active-Region Magnetograms (Invited) 24-Hour Forecasting of CME/Flare Eruptions from Active-Region Magnetograms (Invited)

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh54d..04f&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH54D-04

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7514] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Energetic Particles, [7519] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Flares, [7524] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Magnetic Fields

Scientific paper

We have developed an automated tool for forecasting severe space weather from full-disk magnetograms. This tool is now being used on a trial basis by NASA’s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC. SRAG is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of exposure the astronauts to particle radiation. The tool is described in Falconer, Barghouty, Khazanov, and Moore (2010), submitted to Space Weather. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M- and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar energetic particle events. For each of these event types, the algorithm is based on the empirical relationship between the event rate and a proxy of the active region’s free magnetic energy. The relationship is determined from ~40,000 active-region magnetograms from ~1,300 active regions that were observed within 30 heliographic degrees from disk center by SOHO/MDI, and that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production during disk passage. The tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as a NOAA active region, and measures the proxy of the active region’s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into the active region’s expected event rate (see figure). The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. We can make this tool applicable to the full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from SDO/HMI or as a backup, from NSO/GONG. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from an HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we can use the HMI magnetograms with the empirical relationships determined from our MDI data base to make forecasts of event rates. This work was funded by the NASA Technical Excellence Initiative, by the AFOSR MURI Program, and by the NASA LWS TR&T Program.

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