Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Nov 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001dda....32.0803c&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DDA Meeting #32, #08.03; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 33, p.1196
Mathematics
Probability
1
Scientific paper
In October 2000, the small object 2000 SG344 was found to have a remarkably high 1-in-500 chance of colliding with the Earth in the year 2030. This probability placed the object in Category 1 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, despite the its small 30-70 meter size. Pre-discovery observations subsequently ruled out the possibility of collision in 2030, but there remains a 1-in-1000 chance of collision in the 2070s. Dynamical and collisional lifetime arguments suggest that the object originated from within the Earth-Moon system. With its very Earth-like orbit, 2000 SG344 is an obvious candidate to be a space probe or rocket stage. A straightforward backward integration of the SG344 orbit brings the object close to the Earth in both February and July of 1971. A few possible linkages to man-made objects are proposed.
Chesley Steven R.
Chodas Paul W.
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