Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsa23b..02g&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SA23B-02
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
[3305] Atmospheric Processes / Climate Change And Variability, [3334] Atmospheric Processes / Middle Atmosphere Dynamics, [3362] Atmospheric Processes / Stratosphere/Troposphere Interactions, [7599] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
A brief review of the proposed mechanism for solar cycle influence on tropospheric weather and climate will be given. Recent observational evidence for the 11-year solar cycle signature in stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures will be shown. In particular, results from a multiple linear regression analysis that extends over the period 1979-2008 will be shown, that employs a constant term, a linear trend, a stratospheric optical depth index, a multivariate ENSO index, two orthogonal quasi-biennial oscillation indices and the F10.7 cm radio flux as a solar variability proxy. The time period of analysis covers 3 solar cycles and includes one cycle that does not feature a major volcanic eruption so that the separation of solar and volcanic signals is cleaner. The regression analysis is then repeated using various different solar proxies, including galactic cosmic ray counts and the open solar flux. Stronger correlations are found in the troposphere when using a solar proxy that shows a long-term (downward) drift over centennial timescales, especially the open solar flux. Similar results are also found in an analysis of the solar influence on tropospheric circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic / Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking events and the winter-mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high and low solar forcing years.
Gray Lesley J.
Lockwood Marian
Woollings T. J.
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