Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Dec 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006aas...20924309f&link_type=abstract
2007 AAS/AAPT Joint Meeting, American Astronomical Society Meeting 209, #243.09; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society,
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
A cluster of 5 Ultrahigh Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) in the combined published AGASA-HiRes data has a probability of about 2 10-3 of occurring by chance. The observed energies of the events in this cluster favor a bursting rather than continuously emitting source, with a relative likelihood of about 500. Assuming the UHECRs experience many incoherent small magnetic deflections enroute from source to Earth, the arrival direction distribution allows estimation that < B2 lambda> D 8 nG2 Mpc2, where lambda is the coherence length of the magnetic field and D is the distance of the source. If the spectrum at the source E-2 and the events are emitted on a time scale short compared with 350 D_Mpc years, the total energy emitted in CRs above 1019 eV is 2 × 1043 D_Mpc 3 ergs. Implications for global models of UHECR production are discussed
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