Planetary impact probabilities for long-period comets

Details Planetary impact probabilities for long-period comets Planetary impact probabilities for long-period comets

Jan 1984

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1984icar...57...48z&link_type=abstract

Icarus (ISSN 0019-1035), vol. 57, Jan. 1984, p. 48-54.

Mathematics

Probability

21

Comets, Meteorite Collisions, Opik Theory, Planetary Surfaces, Probability Distribution Functions, Collision Rates, Monte Carlo Method, Planetary Craters, Comets, Long-Period Comets, Impacts, Planets, Calculations, Distance, Perihelion, Inclinations, Monte Carlo Techniques, Comparisons, Data, Parameters, Velocity, Craters, Gravity Effects, Terrestrial Planets, Radii, Mass, Giant Planets, Procedure, Techniques, Distribution

Scientific paper

Planetary impact probabilities for long period (near-parabolic) comets are determined by averaging Opik's (1951) equations over inclination and perihelion distance for each planet. These averaged values compare well with the results of more elaborate Monte Carlo calculations. The impact probabilities are proportional to the square of the normalized capture radius of each planet, which in turn is a function of the planet's radius and mass, so that the major planets have the highest impact probabilities. Encounter velocities have an average value of 3-1/2 times the planetary orbital velocity, but the most probable encounter velocities are slightly higher than this for the terrestrial planets and slightly lower for the major planets. Comparison of the impact probabilities with the cratering record, corrected for gravity and velocity effects, indicates that long period comets may account for 3 to 9 percent of the observed large craters (diameter greater than 10 km) on the terrestrial planets. The inclination and perihelion properties of the impact probabilities obtained from numerical averaging provide a simple method for determining the impact probabilities for nonuniform distributions. The perihelion distribution of long period comets from Fernandez (1981) results in a crater production rate quite similar throughout the solar system, unlike that of a uniform perihelion distribution.

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