Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010dda....41.0601h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DDA meeting #41, #6.01; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.930
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Since ancient times, humans have looked to the skies for explanations of past tragedies and predictions of the future. Indeed the very word "disaster” means "bad star". Although most such myths and forecasts are purely imaginary, we have, in more recent times, identified real cosmic impact events in the past and we have developed the necessary tools to discover and predict them in the near-term future. We dynamical astronomers, the direct descendants of ancient astrologers, have at last gained the tools to actually deliver on at least some of the promises of ancient astrologers, to predict "Armageddon” before it arrives. Nevertheless, we still carry some baggage of mythos, ancient disasters blamed on impacts that never happened, and obsessions over impacts of such incredible improbability that we would better worry about other things. In this talk I will review our present state of knowledge of what is out there that might hit us and with what frequency, the estimated consequences of impacts of all sizes, and from these derive an "actuarial” impact risk assessment. I will present the "intrinsic risk", before any Earth-approaching asteroids were discovered; where we are now with the present level of survey completeness; and where future surveys should take us. I will put this in the context of risk levels from other natural, and un-natural, hazards. I will close with a brief discussion of a claimed impact that almost certainly did not happen, relating to the extinction of megafauna in North America 12,900 years ago. The mythos underlying this claim may provide an object lesson on the present day "street fight” over the reality of global warming.
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