Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Mar 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3705707f&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 5, CiteID L05707
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
11
Global Change: Solar Variability (7537), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Paleoclimatology (0473, 4900), Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy: Solar Irradiance
Scientific paper
The current exceptionally long minimum of solar activity has led to the suggestion that the Sun might experience a new grand minimum in the next decades, a prolonged period of low activity similar to the Maunder minimum in the late 17th century. The Maunder minimum is connected to the Little Ice Age, a time of markedly lower temperatures, in particular in the Northern hemisphere. Here we use a coupled climate model to explore the effect of a 21st-century grand minimum on future global temperatures, finding a moderate temperature offset of no more than -0.3°C in the year 2100 relative to a scenario with solar activity similar to recent decades. This temperature decrease is much smaller than the warming expected from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.
Feulner Georg
Rahmstorf Stefan
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