Space Weather from STEREO and Near-Real Time Forecasts of CMEs

Details Space Weather from STEREO and Near-Real Time Forecasts of CMEs Space Weather from STEREO and Near-Real Time Forecasts of CMEs

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh22a..01w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH22A-01

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7954] Space Weather / Magnetic Storms, [7974] Space Weather / Solar Effects

Scientific paper

Since the start of STEREO observations early in 2007 and despite being in an extended period of low solar activity, there have been several tens of events in which a CME observed at the Sun by one or both STEREO (SECCHI) and/or SOHO (LASCO) spacecraft has passed over one of them or the Earth, as detected from in-situ data. The source regions of the CMEs on the Earth-facing Sun have been well observed by SOHO, Hinode and, more recently, by the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and away from the Sun-Earth line by the STEREO EUVI imagers. The heliospheric propagation of these events has also been observed by the heliospheric imagers (HIs) on STEREO and/or from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) in Earth orbit. This class of events provide important information on the physics of the geometry, propagation and internal structure of CMEs, e.g., most of these ICMEs have magnetic cloud signatures at 1 AU. STEREO has a Space Weather Group and a website where these Sun-to-STEREO/L1 events are cataloged along with other useful STEREO SWx data and links. The SWx Group has used these Sun-to-STEREO/L1 data sets to make near-real time forecasts of CMEs based on several techniques. We discuss the results for several sets of events. Some of the techniques are based on heliospheric image CME reconstruction, such as using STEREO HI "j-plot" fitting techniques and the Tappin-Howard (T-H) model, which extracts basic 3-D information about CMEs by comparing simulated with measured CME leading edges obtained across a sequence of heliospheric images of a given CME. These HI models run quickly and almost autonomously and, thus, are well-suited to SWx forecasting. We summarize these results for understanding the characteristics and the physics of the propagation of CMEs, and the implications for space weather forecasting.

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