Statistical characterisation of spread F over South Africa

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes in 1996 and 2000 at Grahamstown (33.32 °S, 26.50 °E) and Madimbo (22.38 °S, 30.88 °E) respectively. This study is intended to quantify the probability of occurrence of F region disturbances associated with SF over South Africa. A study was conducted using data for 8 years (2001-2008) over Madimbo (with a time resolution of 30 min) and Grahamstown (with a variable time resolution of 15 and 30 min). In this study, SF has been classified into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The SF events were identified by manually identifying ionograms showing SF and tabulating them according to type for further statistical analysis. The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF peaks strongly between 01:00 and 02:00 local time, LT (LT = UT + 2 h), where UT is the universal time. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown in 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring in 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing solar activity, with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study, SF was evident in ˜0.03% and ˜0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the 8 years.

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