Modelling seismic catalogues by cascade models: Do we need long-term magnitude correlations?

Details Modelling seismic catalogues by cascade models: Do we need long-term magnitude correlations? Modelling seismic catalogues by cascade models: Do we need long-term magnitude correlations?

Mar 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011geoji.184.1214l&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Journal International, Volume 184, Issue 3, pp. 1214-1222.

Statistics

Computation

5

Time Series Analysis, Persistence, Memory, Correlation, Clustering, Computational Seismology, Statistical Seismology

Scientific paper

We consider sequences of earthquakes from northern and southern California. We study these data sets for long-term persistence using the concept of natural time and fluctuation analyses. We also construct a simulation model for regional seismicity using random background seismicity and the BASS model for aftershock occurrence. We include in the simulation model corrections for long-term persistence in the background seismicity and for missing data early in aftershock sequences. We find excellent agreement between the California data and the simulations indicating significant long-term correlations in earthquake magnitudes.

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