Computer Science
Scientific paper
Apr 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003eaeja.....8819u&link_type=abstract
EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #8819
Computer Science
Scientific paper
It has been recently suggested that one sunspot cycle was possibly lost in 1790s (Usoskin et al., 2001, A&A, 370, L31). Here we present results of a rigorous statistical analysis of all available sunspot observations around 1792-1793, when the additional cycle minimum was suggested to occur. First we estimate the uncertainty of a monthly sunspot number mean which consists of a single daily observation. Then we compare, using quantitative statistical tests, the pattern of sunspot activity in 1792-1793 and during the minimum, mid-declining and maximum phases of well-measured cycles in the reference period of 1850-1996. We show that the pattern of sunspot activity in 1792-1793 is statistically similar to that in the minimum phase, and significantly different from that in the mid-declining and maximum phases. We calculate the weighted annual values of R_g in 1790-1796 which clearly show a small cycle starting in 1793 and reaching its maximum in 1795. We discuss that the possible existence of a new cycle does not contradict to the indirect proxies of solar activity (e.g., cosmogenic isotope data). We also discuss the implications of the new cycle for solar activity, in particular for the cycle length distribution, the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule and the Waldmeier relation between the cycle amplitude and the length of the ascending and descending phase.
Kovaltsov Gennadi A.
Mursula Kalevi
Usoskin Ilya G.
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