Solar-Terrestrial Predictions

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Aerospace Environments, Conferences, Coronal Holes, Deep Space, Disturbances, Earth Magnetosphere, Equatorial Forecasting, Geomagnetism, Interplanetary Medium, Ionosondes, Ionospheric Electron Density, Ionospheric Propagation, Ionospheric Storms, Magnetic Storms, Magnetospheric Instability, Predictions, Probability Theory, Radiation Hazards, Radio Transmission, Signatures, Solar Activity, Solar Flares, Solar Physics, Solar Protons, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Spacecrewssunspots, Temperate Regions, X Ray

Scientific paper

Volume 1: The following subject areas are covered: the magnetosphere environment; forecasting magnetically quiet periods; radiation hazards to human in deep space (a summary with special reference to large solar particle events); solar proton events (review and status); problems of the physics of solar-terrestrial interactions; prediction of solar proton fluxes from x-ray signatures; rhythms in solar activity and the prediction of episodes of large flares; the role of persistence in the 24-hour flare forecast; on the relationship between the observed sunspot number and the number of solar flares; the latitudinal distribution of coronal holes and geomagnetic storms due to coronal holes; and the signatures of flares in the interplanetary medium at 1 AU.
Volume 2: The following subject areas were covered: a probability forecast for geomagnetic activity; cost recovery in solar-terrestrial predictions; magnetospheric specification and forecasting models; a geomagnetic forecast and monitoring system for power system operation; some aspects of predicting magnetospheric storms; some similarities in ionospheric disturbance characteristics in equatorial, mid-latitude, and sub-auroral regions; ionospheric support for low-VHF radio transmission; a new approach to prediction of ionospheric storms; a comparison of the total electron content of the ionosphere around L=4 at low sunspot numbers with the IRI model; the French ionospheric radio propagation predictions; behavior of the F2 layer at mid-latitudes; and the design of modern ionosondes.

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